21st December India & Global Market Report

Market Outlook: Dec 22 – Dec 28, 2025

The financial world is entering the final full trading week of 2025 under a cloud of mixed economic signals and a “triple-witching” volatility spike. Last week, cooling US inflation data (2.7% YoY) bolstered expectations for continued Fed easing, providing a tailwind for tech equities but weighing heavily on the US Dollar. However, global markets remain cautious as Japan enters a new era of higher rates and AI valuation scepticism persists. Below is a comprehensive breakdown of major asset classes, their recent performance, and technical outlooks for the week ahead.

The last week of December is almost always about liquidity, positioning, and headline sensitivity, not “clean trend trading.” Thin volumes around Christmas and year-end book-squaring typically amplify intraday swings and produce false breakouts across equities, FX, commodities, and crypto. This year that effect is even stronger because the macro backdrop is mixed: U.S. stocks are still sitting on strong 2025 gains, but December has been shaky and investors are debating whether a “Santa rally” shows up or stalls under valuation and rate-path uncertainty. Reuters notes that year-end factors like AI-driven volatility, the Fed rate path, and key U.S. macro prints (including GDP and consumer confidence) are the main drivers into the final stretch of the year.

Across your dataset specifically, the crypto tape reads defensive and rotational, not broad-based risk-on. Large caps are mostly technically “Sell,” while leadership concentrates in a small pocket of winners (DEX infrastructure like UNI, a few DeFi names, and selective narrative pumps). That fits with the broader research flow: multiple weekly outlooks describe sideways BTC with macro uncertainty and inconsistent ETF demand/flows, meaning crypto is likely to track equities and rates rather than decouple into a clean year-end rally. Meanwhile, precious metals are the clear standout into Christmas week—Reuters highlights silver at record highs with strong investment demand and supply deficits, and holiday-thin trading can make metals more volatile (2–3% swings are being discussed for bullion in the Christmas week). Bottom line for the last week of December: expect range + spikes—stocks may drift upward on positioning if data doesn’t shock, but crypto likely stays choppy and reactive, and metals remain bid but volatile due to crowded positioning and thin liquidity.

Global Equity Indices

S&P 500 (US500)

The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,834.50, gaining 0.88% on Friday but finishing the week on a fragile footing due to earlier AI-related sell-offs. Technical analysis shows the index is testing support near the 50-day moving average as investors digest the “triple-witching” options expiration. Fundamentally, the cooling PCE inflation has kept the “soft landing” narrative alive, though high P/E ratios in the tech sector remain a point of contention. Next week, we expect the index to remain range-bound between 6,750 and 6,900 as holiday volumes thin out. Traders should watch the $6,800 level closely; a sustained break below could trigger year-end profit-taking.

Nasdaq 100 (US100)

The tech-heavy Nasdaq finished at 25,346.18, rebounding 1.31% in the final session after a bruising week for AI stocks like Broadcom and Oracle. Despite the late-week recovery, concerns over an “AI bubble” have introduced a “sell-the-rip” mentality among institutional desks. From a technical perspective, the index is forming a potential double-top pattern, necessitating a clear break above 25,600 to resume its bullish trajectory. Fundamental pressure stems from rising yields earlier in the month, though the recent dip in the 10-year Treasury yield provides some relief. Next week likely sees a “Santa Rally” attempt, but upside will be capped by the 25,500 resistance zone.

DAX 40 (Germany)

Germany’s DAX ended the week at 24,288.40, showing a modest daily gain of 0.37% as it struggles to reclaim its bullish structure. European markets are grappling with sluggish regional growth, though the ECB’s pause on aggressive cuts has given the Euro—and by extension, Euro-denominated assets—a steadier floor. Technical indicators suggest the DAX is in a consolidation phase, with major support sitting at the 23,800 level. Fundamentally, the focus remains on German industrial data and the impact of global trade tensions on export-oriented firms. For the coming week, the DAX is expected to drift sideways, mirroring the low-volatility environment typical of the pre-Christmas period.

Nikkei 225 (Japan)

The Nikkei 225 closed at 49,507.21, recovering 1.03% on Friday despite a landmark 25 bps rate hike by the Bank of Japan to 0.75%. Despite the Friday bounce, the index lost 2.64% over the full week as the market adjusted to the highest Japanese interest rates since 1995. Technically, the index is facing resistance at the 50,000 psychological milestone, with a bearish crossover appearing on shorter-term moving averages. Fundamental shifts in BoJ policy are attracting “carry trade” unwinding, which may put further pressure on Japanese equities in the medium term. We expect a volatile week ahead as the yen’s strength continues to weigh on major Japanese exporters.

Building on our global outlook, we now expand into the critical corridors of Asia, the Middle East, and Emerging Europe. The late December sessions are characterized by a “two-speed” market: while Western indices celebrate all-time highs on cooling inflation, Asian and Middle Eastern markets are navigating local interest rate pivots and geopolitical rebalancing. From India’s resilient consumption story to the historic rate shifts in Japan and Pakistan, here is the granular breakdown for these regions.

Asian & Emerging Markets

India (Nifty 50)

The Nifty 50 ended the week at 25,966.40, gaining 0.58% on Friday but securing a modest weekly recovery after three weeks of selling. Technically, the index is finding strong support at its 55-day EMA (25,700), forming a base for a potential year-end rally toward the 26,300 resistances. Fundamentally, domestic retail participation remains a massive buffer against the $12.7 billion in FII outflows seen this quarter. The focus remains on U.S.-India trade negotiations and the Rupee, which briefly touched an all-time low of 91.07. We expect Nifty to trade with a “buy-on-dips” bias next week, likely consolidating between 25,850 and 26,150.

China (SSE Composite)

The Shanghai Composite closed at 3,885.62, up 0.24% for the day as it struggles to maintain the momentum of the massive Q3 stimulus. While inflation data showed a mild improvement, the economy is still grappling with a 37-month streak of producer price deflation, keeping institutional investors cautious. Technically, the index is hovering near its 200-day moving average, requiring a break above 3,950 to invalidate the current bearish structure. Fundamental headwinds include a cooling property sector and the World Bank’s growth projection of 4.4% for 2026. Next week, expect the index to remain sluggish as global capital rotates toward higher-yielding emerging markets.

South Korea (KOSPI)

The KOSPI finished at 4,020.55, falling 3.4% over the last seven days as a rout in semiconductor heavyweights like Samsung and SK Hynix took its toll. Despite a 0.65% bounce on Friday, the index is facing a “risky pattern” after failing to hold its all-time high of 4,212 reached in November. Fundamentally, the Won’s 8% depreciation in the second half of 2025 is hurting sentiment, even as chipmakers report record server-DDR5 demand. Technically, the index is oversold, suggesting a minor relief rally is possible toward the 4,080 level. However, for the next week, the outlook remains cautious until the “AI bubble” fears in the tech sector fully subside.

Pakistan (KSE-100)

The PSX achieved a historic milestone, hitting an all-time high of 171,960 before closing the week at 171,404 with a 0.91% weekly gain. Investor optimism was electrified by a surprise 50 bps rate cut by the State Bank of Pakistan and a rare November current account surplus. Technically, the index is in “price discovery” mode, though a shrinking daily volume suggests the rally may be reaching a temporary exhaustion point. Fundamentally, the receipt of IMF disbursements and a potential oil deal with Russia are acting as powerful catalysts. We expect some profit-taking in the coming week, with a likely consolidation floor around the 169,500 mark.

Middle East & Russia

Saudi Arabia (TASI)

The Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) closed at 11,503, down 1.6% over the previous week as the energy sector dragged on the broader market. Despite the dip, the index remains supported by the Saudi Central Bank’s decision to match the Fed’s rate cuts, easing pressure on the massive real estate and banking sectors. Technically, the TASI is testing support at 11,400, and a failure here could lead to a retest of the 11,100 Q2 lows. Fundamentally, the 2026 budget forecast—projecting a SAR 166 billion deficit—highlights the kingdom’s pivot toward high spending to support Vision 2030. For next week, the index will likely track oil prices, staying range-bound unless a breakthrough in foreign ownership caps is announced.

UAE (ADX & DFM)

The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) ended the week flat at 9,150 (approx.), though its tech sector saw a standout 3.0% gain as regional AI investment surged. The Dubai Financial Market (DFM) continues to outperform its regional peers, supported by a 32% surge in market cap throughout 2025 and a flurry of successful IPOs like Talabat. Technically, the UAE markets are exhibiting high relative strength, with the ADX trading near its fair valuation of 11.6x P/E. Fundamentally, the region is benefiting from a massive influx of foreign nationals, who now account for 50% of DFM’s trading value. We anticipate a stable “Santa Rally” in the UAE next week, driven by year-end portfolio rebalancing.

Russia (MOEX)

The MOEX Russia Index closed at 2,752, marking an 8.5% recovery over the last month despite ongoing sanctions against energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil. The market has fundamentally transformed into a retail-driven exchange, where local investors are buying the dip in defense and IT sectors as Western firms exit. Technically, the index has bounced off its 10-month lows of 2,550, but remains capped by a significant resistance zone at 2,800. The Central Bank of Russia’s pivot to a 16% interest rate has provided a temporary floor for the Ruble but continues to stifle non-military economic growth. Expect the MOEX to remain highly volatile next week, reacting sharply to any headlines regarding the Ukraine conflict or new EU LNG prohibitions.

European Markets

EU Markets (STOXX 600)

The STOXX 600 hit a fresh record high on Friday, closing at 585.35 with a 1.6% weekly gain, fueled by expectations of aggressive ECB easing in early 2026. Heavyweights like ASML and Novo Nordisk led the charge, though sportswear brands Adidas and Puma struggled due to weak Chinese demand and tariff fears. Technically, the index is in a clear bullish trend, though the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is approaching “overbought” territory above 70. Fundamentally, the EU’s agreement to issue joint bonds for Ukraine has added a layer of fiscal stability to the region’s outlook. For the final full week of December, we expect a low-volume drift upward as the “Santa Rally” remains the dominant theme.

Would you like me to generate a “Global Heatmap” summary showing which of these regions has the highest projected growth for the first quarter of 2026?

Currencies & Crypto

US Dollar Index (DXY) & Major Pairs

The US Dollar entered a retreat, with the EUR/USD rising to 1.1710 and the GBP/USD hitting 1.3378 as markets priced in a higher probability of a January Fed cut. The DXY closed near 98.30, its lowest since mid-October, reflecting a narrowing yield advantage for the greenback. Technically, the dollar index has broken below its primary ascending trendline, suggesting a shift toward a bearish regime for the year-end. Fundamentals are being driven by the “Fed vs. Everyone” narrative, as the ECB and RBA maintain relatively hawkish stances compared to a softening US outlook. Expect continued USD weakness next week, with EUR/USD potentially testing the 1.1800 resistance level.

Bitcoin & Ethereum

Bitcoin (BTC) faced sustained bearish pressure, sliding to $85,570 (-2.94% weekly), while the broader crypto market showed signs of a “distribution” phase. Technically, BTC has lost its $88,000 support, and the failure to hold the $90,000 psychological level has emboldened short-sellers. Fundamental sentiment has cooled as institutional inflows into spot ETFs slowed, and a rotation into “old-school” safe havens like gold became evident. Ethereum and Altcoins like XRP followed suit, with XRP losing its $2.00 handle to trade near $1.89. For the next week, a retest of the $82,000 support for Bitcoin is highly probable unless a major festive “buying climax” occurs.

Commodities & Metals

Gold & Silver

Gold surged to $4,332/oz, marking its second consecutive weekly gain and approaching its October record highs. The metal has benefited from a “perfect storm” of a weaker dollar, falling real yields, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine. Silver has remarkably outperformed, trading at $63.06/oz—surpassing the price of a barrel of crude oil for the first time in 40 years. Technically, gold is in a strong “buy-on-dip” regime, with the next major target at $4,400. We expect precious metals to remain the star performers next week as investors hedge against potential year-end equity volatility.

Crude Oil (WTI)

WTI Crude fell to $56.19/barrel, a -2.51% weekly drop, as concerns over a global supply surplus in 2026 began to weigh on the market. The World Bank’s recent forecast of a 7% decline in commodity prices has dampened speculative interest in energy. Technically, oil is trapped in a descending channel, with heavy resistance at $60 and a potential floor at $54. Fundamentals remain weak due to soft demand from China and Europe, despite OPEC+ attempts to signal production discipline. Next week, oil prices are likely to remain depressed, especially if US inventory data shows a larger-than-expected build.

Industrial Metals (Copper & Aluminum)

Copper and other base metals finished the week mixed, with Nifty Metals gaining 1.90% on hopes of a Chinese demand revival. However, broader global industrial output data remains lacklustre, capping the upside for metals used in heavy manufacturing. Technically, copper is holding above the $4.10/lb support level, but lacks the momentum to break through the $4.35 ceiling. The fundamental story for metals in 2026 hinges on the “green energy transition” vs. “global recession” tug-of-war. We anticipate a quiet, range-bound week for industrial metals as the market awaits January’s Chinese PMI data.

TAKEAWAY FOR THE COMING WEEK

The coming week is not about conviction trades, it’s about survival and precision. Liquidity will thin out sharply as December ends, which means price moves will be driven more by position squaring, stop hunts, and headline reactions than by fundamentals. Equities may attempt a mild year-end lift, but upside will be fragile and selective, not broad-based. Crypto remains structurally weak beneath the surface: large caps are acting as liquidity magnets, not trend leaders, while rallies in mid and small caps are mostly momentum bursts without follow-through. Metals stay relatively strong, but even there, gains are increasingly crowded and prone to sharp pullbacks. In short, this is a defensive, rotational, low-confidence market, where cash and patience are positions.

RISKS YOU CANNOT IGNORE

The biggest risk next week is false signals amplified by low volume—breakouts that fail within hours, sudden spikes that reverse brutally, and stop-loss cascades triggered by thin order books. Overleveraging in crypto or chasing green candles in equities is the fastest way to give back profits made earlier in the year. Macro risk remains asymmetric: any surprise in U.S. data, bond yields, or geopolitical headlines can hit risk assets hard when liquidity is absent. Commodities and metals carry a different risk—crowded longs—meaning even bullish trends can correct violently without warning. The correct stance is simple but uncomfortable: trade smaller, book faster, respect stops, and don’t force trades. If you try to make this week behave like a trending market, it will punish you for it.

aiTrendview Global Disclaimer

This aiTrendview report is an AI-generated document provided exclusively for educational and training purposes and shall not be construed as investment, financial, legal, or tax advice in any jurisdiction.

aiTrendview and its affiliates are not SEBI-registered research analysts, investment advisers, or portfolio managers, and all information herein is automatically compiled from publicly available sources that may contain errors, delays, or omissions.

Users must independently verify all data before making any financial, commercial, or legal decisions, as no market values, performance figures, or trends contained in this report constitute guarantees or forward-looking statements.

Nothing in this publication should be interpreted as a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any security.

aiTrendview, its creators, and all associated AI systems disclaim all liability for losses or consequences arising from the use or reliance upon this content, and users accept full personal responsibility for all actions taken based on it.

Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or modification of this AI-generated material is strictly prohibited under international copyright, compliance, and intellectual-property laws.