16th December India & Global Market Report

Dollar Rebounds as Gold & Oil Slide; India Hits Fresh Lows on FII Exit

Market Analysis: Closing Data – Tuesday, December 16, 2025

Global markets displayed a fragmented performance on Tuesday as the “post-NFP hangover” continued to influence sentiment. Following the delayed release of US employment data, investors pivoted back to the US Dollar, driving the DXY higher and pressuring the commodity complex. While US equities struggled for direction with technology stocks under pressure, the “risk-off” mood was most acutely felt in emerging markets.

India decoupled negatively from its Asian peers, with the Nifty 50 and Sensex slipping roughly 0.6% to close at monthly lows. The sell-off was exacerbated by the Indian Rupee hitting a record low of ₹91.01 against the dollar, triggering aggressive foreign capital outflows. The prevailing narrative is one of caution; while domestic institutions (DIIs) are buying the dip, they are currently being overpowered by relentless FII selling and global headwinds.

1. Global & Indian Indices

Symbol	Last	Change	Change %	Trend
Dow 30	48,416.56	-41.49	-0.10%	Bearish
S&P 500	6,816.51	-10.90	-0.20%	Neutral
Nasdaq	23,057.41	-137.76	-0.60%	Bearish
Nifty 50	25,860.10	-167.20	-0.64%	Bearish
Sensex	84,679.86	-533.50	-0.63%	Bearish
Bank Nifty	59,034.60	-427.20	-0.72%	Bearish
Nikkei 225	50,200.00	+61.70	+0.12%	Bullish
Hang Seng	25,550.00	-78.90	-0.31%	Bearish

Analysis per Symbol:

Nifty 50
- Fundamental: The index broke the psychological 26,000 mark as the Rupee’s depreciation to 91.08 rattled sentiment.
- Technical: Closed at 25,860, forming a bearish candle. Immediate support is now at 25,700; a break below this could open the door to 25,600.
- Economic: IN: WPI Inflation came in at (-)0.32% (deflation), driven by falling food prices, but failed to cheer the market.
Bank Nifty
- Fundamental: Heavyweight banks dragged the index down by 0.72% as net interest margin concerns resurfaced.
- Technical: The index failed to hold 59,200 and closed near 59,034. A slip below 59,000 is the immediate risk for tomorrow.
Dow 30 & Nasdaq
- Fundamental: US markets are in a “wait-and-see” mode ahead of retail sales data. Tech stocks (Nasdaq -0.60%) bore the brunt of the selling due to yield sensitivity.

2. Indian Stocks & FII Activity

Symbol	Last	Change	Change %	Key Insight
HDFC Bank	994.30	-1.80	-0.18%	Relative strength vs sector; holding 990 support.
Reliance Ind.	1,540.70	-7.00	-0.45%	Consolidating; AI unit launch news providing floor.
Infosys	1,592.60	-8.00	-0.50%	Defensive buying faded; volumes remain high.
Axis Bank	1,219.60	-65.00	-5.07%	Top Loser: Sharp sell-off on sector headwinds.
PB Fintech	~1,600	-92.00	-5.48%	Hit by regulatory fears on insurance commission caps.

Institutional Flow (Provisional for Dec 16):

FII (Foreign): Net Sell ₹2,381.92 Cr – Continued exodus due to Rupee weakness and US bond yields.
DII (Domestic): Net Buy ₹1,077.48 Cr – Local funds absorbing supply, but not enough to turn the trend.

3. Commodities & Currencies

Symbol	Last	Change	Change %	Trend
Gold	4,310.50	-14.00	-0.32%	Toppy
Crude Oil	56.40	-1.13	-1.96%	Bearish
Dollar Index	98.65	+0.26	+0.26%	Bullish
USD/INR	91.01	+0.34	+0.37%	Record Low

Analysis:

USD/INR: The Rupee breached the historic 91 mark, closing at 91.01. This devaluation is the primary driver for FII selling in Indian equities.
Crude Oil: Brent slipped below $60, which is theoretically good for India’s import bill, but demand fears are currently outweighing cost benefits.

Footer Note

The divergence between India and the West is widening. While US markets are consolidating, India is undergoing a price correction driven by currency devaluation. The Nifty’s close below 26,000 is a significant psychological blow. The persistent FII selling (over ₹2,300 Cr today) indicates that foreign investors are risk-averse towards emerging markets until the Dollar Index stabilizes.

For Wednesday, the key lies in the Rupee’s stability and the Bank Nifty’s defense of 59,000. If the Rupee weakens further beyond 91.10, expect another round of heavy selling in financials. Conversely, any dip in the Dollar Index could spark a sharp short-covering rally given the oversold conditions in Indian banks.

Takeaway for Wednesday, December 17 Trade

Strategy: “Defend or Defect”

India Specific:
- Bank Nifty: Watch 59,000 closely. If it breaks, initiate Short positions targeting 58,800.
- Stock Play: Avoid Axis Bank and PB Fintech (falling knives). Look for value in HDFC Bank only if it reclaims 1,000.
- Defensive: With WPI deflation, FMCG stocks might offer a safe harbor against the broader volatility.
Global:
- Short Oil: Sell rallies in Crude Oil near 57.00; the trend is heavily bearish.
- Watch Gold: If global equities drop, Gold might find support at 4,300.

Economic Announcements: Wednesday, December 17, 2025

🇬🇧 United Kingdom:
- CPI Inflation Rate (YoY): (Forecast: 3.5%) – High Impact.
🇺🇸 United States:
- Retail Sales (MoM): (Forecast: 0.1%) – High Impact.
- EIA Crude Oil Inventories: High Impact for Oil prices.
🇮🇳 India:
- Market Reaction to WPI: Markets will further digest the (-)0.32% WPI deflation data released post-market yesterday.
- Rupee Intervention: Watch for potential RBI action if USD/INR crosses 91.10.

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