15th December India & Global Market Report

Global Markets Hold Breath for Delayed US Jobs Data; India Sees Sector Rotation

Market Analysis: December 15, 2025

As we head into Tuesday’s trading session, global markets are exhibiting a cautious “wait-and-see” approach, primarily driven by the highly anticipated, delayed release of US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment data. While US Futures (US500, NAS100) are trading slightly in the green, signalling a potential stabilization after recent volatility, Asian markets are flashing warning signs with the Hang Seng and Kospi facing significant selling pressure. This divergence highlights a flight to safety, further evidenced by the bullish momentum in Precious Metals, with Gold and Silver rallying as investors hedges against potential economic deceleration and sticky inflation.

Closer to home, the Indian market is locked in a tug-of-war between institutional forces. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued their selling spree, offloading ₹1,468 Cr on December 15, but this was more than absorbed by Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) who bought ₹1,792 Cr, providing a crucial floor to the Nifty. The internal market breadth suggests a clear sector rotation: defensive sectors like IT and Media are attracting capital, while interest-rate-sensitive sectors like Auto and Banking (dragged by HDFC Bank) are facing headwinds. Traders should expect heightened volatility today as the market digests the RBI’s liquidity moves and global cues.

1. Global Indices & Futures

Symbol	Last	Change	Change %
US500	6,833.3	+5.2	+0.08%
US30	48,473.00	+2.00	+0.00%
NAS100	25,215.7	+30.4	+0.12%
FCE1! (CAC Futures)	8,157.0	+84.5	+1.05%
FDAX1! (DAX Futures)	24,295	+78	+0.32%
FESX1! (Euro Stoxx)	5,763	+35	+0.61%
HSI (Hang Seng)	25,628.89	-347.91	-1.34%
J225 (Nikkei)	50,138.3	+2.5	0.00%
KOSPI	4,090.59	-76.57	-1.84%
IRUS (Russell 2000)	2,750.46	+10.97	+0.40%

Analysis:

US500 (S&P 500 Futures)
- Fundamental: Valuation concerns remain high, but resilience is visible as investors await the delayed jobs report to gauge recession risks.
- Technical: Finding support near 6,830; a break above 6,850 is needed to confirm a short-term reversal.
- Economic: US: Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate due today are the primary catalysts.
NAS100 (Nasdaq 100 Futures)
- Fundamental: Tech stocks are pausing; yields stabilizing is providing a minor tailwind for growth stocks.
- Technical: Trading within a tight consolidation channel; 25,000 acts as a psychological support floor.
- Economic: US: Industrial Production data release will impact semiconductor demand outlook.
HSI (Hang Seng)
- Fundamental: weak sentiment persists due to sluggish Chinese property data and lack of aggressive stimulus follow-through.
- Technical: Bearish breakdown below 26,000; the sharp 1.34% drop targets the next support at 25,500.
- Economic: CN: Recent Retail Sales data missed some aggressive estimates, weighing on sentiment.

2. Commodities (COMEX & Spot)

Symbol	Last	Change	Change %
GOLD1! (Futures)	134,687	+1,065	+0.80%
SILVER1! (Futures)	197,560	+4,709	+2.44%
XAUUSD (Spot Gold)	4,324.41	+25.035	+0.58%
SILVER (Spot)	63.4874	+1.5674	+2.53%
CRUDEOIL	5,181	-47	-0.90%
NATURALG	364.5	-12.0	-3.19%
BRENT	60.525	-0.380	-0.62%

Analysis:

Gold (XAUUSD / GOLD1!)
- Fundamental: Safe-haven demand is robust amid global growth uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.
- Technical: Strong bullish structure; spot prices holding firmly above $4,300 suggests buyers are active on dips.
- Economic: US: Fed speakers scheduled later this week will influence the non-interest-bearing appeal.
Silver (SILVER / SILVER1!)
- Fundamental: Outperforming gold with a ~2.5% gain, driven by both industrial usage hopes and monetary hedging.
- Technical: A massive breakout candle on the daily chart; clearing 63.00 opens the path to 65.00.
- Economic: US: Industrial Production figures today will be critical for sustaining this industrial metal’s rally.
Crude Oil / Brent
- Fundamental: Oversupply fears and weaker demand from China are keeping a lid on prices despite OPEC+ cuts.
- Technical: Bearish trend intact; Brent struggling to hold the $60 handle is a negative signal for the energy sector.
- Economic: US: API Weekly Crude Oil Stock inventory data (delayed/upcoming) will drive short-term moves.

3. Forex & Crypto

Symbol	Last	Change	Change %
EURUSD	1.1763	+0.00256	+0.22%
GBPUSD	1.3396	+0.00322	+0.24%
USDJPY	154.91	-0.887	-0.57%
BTCUSD	88,070.92	-100.69	-0.11%
ETHUSD	3,051.0	-10.5	-0.34%
SOLANA	130.59	-0.99	-0.75%

Analysis:

EURUSD
- Fundamental: The Euro is staging a mild recovery ahead of Eurozone trade data, benefiting from a slightly softer Dollar.
- Technical: Reclaiming the 1.1750 level is positive; needs to break 1.1800 to reverse the medium-term downtrend.
- Economic: EU: Euro Area Goods Exports and Trade Balance data due today.
USDJPY
- Fundamental: The Yen is strengthening as falling US yields reduce the carry trade advantage.
- Technical: Breaking below 155.00 is significant; next major support lies at 154.50.
- Economic: US: Treasury yield movements post-NFP data will directly dictate the next leg for this pair.

4. Indian Market: Indices & Stocks

Symbol	Last	Change	Change %
NIFTY 50	26,027.30	-19.65	-0.08%
BANKNIFTY	59,461.80	+71.85	+0.12%
HDFCBANK	996.10	-5.40	-0.54%
RELIANCE	1,556.20	-0.30	-0.02%
INFY	1,606.80	+8.60	+0.54%
TCS	3,230.20	+9.70	+0.30%
CNXAUTO	27,568.10	-252.75	-0.91%

Analysis:

Nifty 50
- Fundamental: Index is consolidating; heavy DII buying is countering FII outflows, preventing a sharper correction.
- Technical: Stuck in a narrow range; 26,000 is the critical support line that bulls must defend.
- Economic: IN: RBI $5 Billion USD/INR Buy/Sell Swap Auction today impacts liquidity.
HDFC Bank
- Fundamental: Underperformance continues due to margin compression fears; heaviest weight dragging the index down.
- Technical: Trading below the psychological 1000 mark is bearish; weakness likely to persist until 1010 is reclaimed.
- Economic: IN: Upcoming banking credit growth data will be closely watched by investors.
Infosys (INFY)
- Fundamental: IT sector is acting as a defensive play amid global uncertainty; strong deal pipeline aids sentiment.
- Technical: Positive price action; holding above 1600 suggests strength relative to the broader market.
- Economic: US: Tech spending outlook implied by US economic data will drive the stock.

5. FII / DII Activity (Provisional for Dec 15)

Category	Net Purchase / Sales (₹ Cr)
FII	-1,468.3 (Net Sell)
DII	+1,792.2 (Net Buy)

Analysis:

Fundamental: The persistent selling by FIIs (-1468 Cr) reflects global risk-off sentiment, but domestic liquidity remains robust.
Technical: This flow divergence often leads to range-bound markets until one side capitulates; DIIs are currently the “market makers.”
Economic: IN: Upcoming US Fed minutes (later in month) may influence future FII allocation strategies.

The current market environment is defined by a “calm before the storm” atmosphere. While the DIIs are aggressively defending Indian valuation levels against FII outflows, the global cue from the US—specifically the delayed employment data—remains the elephant in the room. The divergence between resilient precious metals and weakening industrial commodities suggests that smart money is hedging against potential stagnation.

Traders should exercise extreme caution. The breakdown in key Asian indices like KOSPI and Hang Seng serves as a warning that risk appetite is fragile. In India, the safety in IT and weakness in Auto indicates a defensive rotation. It is advisable to avoid aggressive leverage until the US jobs numbers provide a clear direction for the global economy.

Takeaway for December 16th Trade

Strategy: Defensive Rotation & Level Watching

Long: Look for buying opportunities in IT Stocks (TCS, INFY) and Gold/Silver. These assets are showing relative strength and defensive characteristics.
Short/Avoid: Fade rallies in Auto (CNXAUTO) and HDFC Bank until they reclaim key resistance levels.
Key Levels: Watch Nifty 26,000. If this support breaks on a closing basis, selling could accelerate. Conversely, if US500 holds 6,830 post-data, a relief rally could lift global sentiment.

Economic Announcements: Tuesday, December 16, 2025

🇺🇸 United States:
- Non-Farm Payrolls (Delayed): High Impact – Critical for Fed rate expectations.
- Unemployment Rate: High Impact – Expected to move markets significantly if it deviates from consensus.
- Industrial Production: Medium Impact – Key gauge for manufacturing health.
🇪🇺 European Union:
- Euro Area Goods Exports & Trade Balance: Medium Impact – Will influence EUR pairs.
- Consolidated Financial Statement: Low Impact – Routine ECB publication.
🇮🇳 India:
- RBI USD/INR Buy/Sell Swap Auction: High Impact – The RBI is conducting a $5 billion auction to manage liquidity and FX reserves.

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